Posthaste: Canada’s home sales are finally rising — but prices are not

Canada’s home sales are finally on the rise as buyers trickle back to the market, but prices are not, finds a nation-wide survey.

The aggregate price of a home nationally was virtually unchanged in the third quarter, increasing just 0.1 per cent from the year before to $816,500, according to

data from real estate company Royal LePage . Compared to the second quarter, prices were down 1.2 per cent.

The Canadian Real Estate Association painted a similar picture when it upgraded its forecast today. CREA now expects home sales to fall 1.1 per cent in 2025, an improvement from its earlier forecast of a 3 per cent decline. The average home price is forecast to fall 1.4 per cent.

Months of slumping sales and rising listings have given buyers real choice and bargaining power for the first time in years, said Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage.

“Affordability is improving and the economic backdrop remains remarkably stable, yet consumer confidence is lagging,” he said. “Many buyers remain hesitant – some worried about broader economic uncertainty, others waiting to see if prices dip a little further before stepping in.”

It appears they are willing to wait a while. In a recent Royal LePage survey, more than 80 per cent of the Canadians who were working towards buying their first home said they are planning to hold off for at least another year.

A lack of urgency is the defining characteristic of the Toronto housing market right now, said Shawn Zigelstein, a broker.

Home prices were down 3.5 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area in the third quarter from the year before and new listings outpaced sales. Properties are also spending “significantly” more time on the market, he said.

“The average days on market is now edging towards two months – a stark contrast to the pandemic real estate frenzy, when properties were selling in just a few days,” said Zigelstein.

“Sellers who price their homes too high are finding them languishing ….”

A breakdown by housing type shows the depth of the condo market slump in this city. The median price of a condominium dropped 7.4 per cent, year over year, while the price of a detached single-family home slipped just 1.2 per cent.

Since the peak of the pandemic housing boom, national home prices have fallen 5 per cent, according to Royal LePage’s figures. This was mostly driven by the decline in the country’s two biggest (and most expensive) markets, Toronto and Vancouver, where prices have plunged 12 per cent from their peak.

Royal LePage has downgraded its home price forecast because of the decline in Ontario and British Columbia and slower growth in other major markets. It now expects prices to rise 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, year over year.

“Prices are likely to tread water in the near term, as improved affordability and lower borrowing costs draw more buyers back to the table,” said Soper.

 Sign up here to get Posthaste delivered straight to your inbox.

Canada’s manufacturing sales took a tumble in August, but they beat forecasts.

Statistics Canada said Wednesday that factory sales fell 1 per cent to $69.4 billion that month, with 12 or 21 sectors showing declines.

Economists, however, had expected a 1.5 per cent dip. Transportation equipment drove the decline with aerospace products and parts down more than 5 per cent and motor vehicles down over 3 per cent. But Alexandra Brown, North America economist for Capital Economics, said those numbers are not as bad as they seem as both followed a surge in sales the month before.

“That said, the news that Stellantis is shifting production of its newest Jeep models to the U.S. highlights the challenges facing the sector, suggesting limited upside going forwards,” he said.

• Today’s Data: Canada existing home sales, housing starts
• Earnings: Bank of New York Mellon Corp, Marsh & McLennan Cos Inc., Kinder Morgan Inc., Charles Schwab Corp., U.S. Bancorp

• BMO CEO worries Canada’s focus on building economy, reducing trade barriers may lose steam
• Carney faces pressure from all sides on EV mandate as sales plummet
• Who is Peter Howitt, the Canadian who just won the Nobel Prize for economics?

We’re entering a new era, one where fiscal discipline is fading, market signals are flashing red and traditional risk management tools are losing effectiveness, warns investing pro Martin Pelletier.

Bonds used to be the seat belts of a portfolio but now, many of them are fraying under the pressure of poor fiscal management and distorted monetary policy.

Pelletier urges investors to rethink their approach — and not just a tweak or rebalance, but a full upgrade. Structured notes, gold and modern defensive strategies are no longer niche, they’re necessary, he says.

McLister on mortgages

Find out more Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his

Financial Post on YouTube

mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at 

• The outlook for Canada’s provinces has turned on its head — and the losers might surprise you
• ‘Build, baby, build’ strategy risks labour shortages, cost overruns

posthaste@postmedia.com . Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the business news you need to know — add financialpost.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here