Data rolling in on the collection of tariffs by the United States suggests the trade war initiated by President

Donald Trump is already generating significant revenue for the U.S. Treasury.

More than US$26.6 billion was brought in for June, nearly quadruple the US$7.3 billion raised in January. More than US$108 billion has been collected in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, nearly double the total raised at this point a year earlier.

The increase in tariff revenue began to spike in April when customs duties (after any refunds) hit US$15.6 billion. By May, the haul had jumped to US$22.2 billion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the tariffs — as low as 10 per cent for some countries and at least 50 per cent for China and some

Canadian imports such as steel and aluminum — are on track to pull in US$300 billion. It’s a sizeable haul for a president who has faced criticism for on-again, off-again tariff threats that earned the nickname TACO — short for Trump Always Chickens Out.

While the tariff data so far is being heralded by the Trump administration as a win, policy and trade observers aren’t as sure it signals a long-term victory.

“On balance, I would expect tariff revenue to be higher in the short run than out in the medium to long run,” said Marc-André Pigeon, an assistant professor at the University of Saskatchewan’s graduate school of public policy.

Recession risk

He said a number of things could cause a drag on the increased revenue, some desirable to the Trump administration and others not. More re-shoring of industry, which the administration wants, would cause the figures to drop. On the negative side of the ledger, so would an economic downturn, which some economists are predicting as a result of the trade policies, and a stronger U.S. dollar relative to other countries’ currencies.

Several countries including Canada are in the midst of talks aimed at securing more favourable trade terms that would offset the tariffs imposed on them. If successful, it would mean lower revenue for the U.S. government over time, but there is no assurance Trump will yield. Prime minister

Mark Carney told reporters this week that securing a trade deal with the U.S. without

some tariffs is unlikely. Teresa Cyrus, an associate professor and chair of the Department of economics at Dalhousie University in Halifax, suggested the US$300 billion tariff haul Bessent is touting for the year may not bode well for further deals with Trump.

“Perhaps Bessent is hinting that trade deals are unlikely?” she said in an email.

Global trade shuffle

In the past, sustained steep tariffs have not come without upheaval in trading partners and supply chains as countries seek alternatives trading partners and buyers turn to jurisdictions where they can pay the least for supplies — and that, too, could have an impact on U.S. tariff-based revenue.

William Pellerin, a partner in the international trade group at law firm McMillan LLP, said some of that is already happening.

“We expect that many global companies will (look) for ways to get their products from countries with the lowest tariffs,” he said. “This kind of supply chain reshuffling is already happening in Canada, and we believe it will happen even more in the United States.”

A major plank in Trump’s tariff campaign, which was unleashed almost immediately after he took office in January, was to bring industry and manufacturing back to the United States. But it was also pitched as a way to bolster U.S. government revenues to help pay for tax cuts in a major piece of legislation he dubbed “one big beautiful bill.”

The latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office is that the legislation, which was signed by Trump and became law on July 4, will increase deficits by $3.4 trillion over the 2025 to 2034 period.

Robert Wolfe, a professor emeritus at Queens University, whose research focus is global trade, said the tariffs suggests an “incoherence” in longterm policy goals, despite the positive early data.

“Either tariffs are a source of revenue, or they are a means to protect American industry — beyond the short term they can’t be both,” he said. “If imports decline in response (to) the tax, so will revenues.”

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