Joby Aviation stock price has retreated in the past few months as investors prepare for its most important year as it moves towards commercialization. It was trading at $15.50 this week, down by ~26% from its highest point in 2025. This article explores whether the JOBY stock is a good buy or whether it is safe to stay in the sidelines.

Joby Aviation has made progress as it moves towards commercialization

Joby Aviation is one of the handful of companies working on the Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) industry. The other top companies building these solutions are Archer Aviation and Wisk Aero.

Joby has spent the last few years raising money, building its products, seeking certification, and making deals with potential customers. It has raised funds from companies like Toyota, Uber, Delta, and SK Telecom. 

Toyota, one of the biggest manufacturing companies globally, has become its core investor. It will help it improve its manufacturing process over time. 

At the same time, it has achieved major regulatory milestones, and analysts anticipate that it will receive full approval later this year. This approval will help it start selling its aircraft and then running its air taxi business.

The company has also built its manufacturing locations, and this week, it acquired a 700,000 square foot location in Ohio. It hopes that this plant will start producing four aircraft from 2027. This space is in addition to the other one in California, where its operations will start later this year. Its California plant will also make 24 aircraft per year. 

Once launched, Joby Aviation will make money by operating an air taxi service in the United States and other countries. It will also sell its aircraft, which will have speeds of up to 200 mph and have a range of ~150 miles. 

Joby has already inked deals with companies like Uber and Delta. It has also acquired Blade Air Mobility, a company that offers air taxi solution. With this buyout, Joby aims to introduce its aircraft to scale its operations, giving it an edge over other companies like Archer Aviation.

JOBY faces major risks ahead

Joby Aviation faces major risks ahead. One of its main risks is that this is a new industry that is yet to be tested. Estimates are that the air taxi business will continue growing and reach over $14 billion by 2032 from $2.8 billion in 2023.

However, these estimates are based mostly on hypotheticals as the industry is still in its infancy. 

READ MORE: 5 reasons why Joby Aviation stock has surged, and why it may crash 40%

The other major risk is its dilution, which will likely happen as it raises money to fund its profitability. Its outstanding shares have jumped from 604 million in 2021 to the current 874 million. 

At the same time, the company will likely continue burning money in the coming years. This cash burn will likely lead to more need for resources in the next few years.

Joby Aviation stock technical analysis 

JOBY chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart shows that the JOBY share price has rebounded in the past few months. It has rebounded from a low of $5 in April last year to $21 in September.

On the positive side, the stock has formed a giant bull pennant pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle. The two lines of this triangle. 

Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the stock will likely have a strong bullish breakout this year. If this happens, the next key resistance level to watch will be at $21, up by 35% above the current level.

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