Donald Trump supporters, such as Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative during the president’s first term, trumpeted that economists got it all wrong on

tariffs and the American economy is doing just fine. But even with the U.S. government shutdown preventing the release of a lot of economic data, the numbers that are still trickling in suggest conditions are deteriorating, according to

David Rosenberg , founder and president of Rosenberg Research and Associates Inc.

That’s not good news for the U.S., but it’s also not great for Canada, which remains dependent on the health of American consumers and businesses to fuel growth.

“We keep hearing about what great financial shape the American consumer is in,” Rosenberg said in a report earlier this week on the state of the U.S. economy. “But at the margin, that is clearly not the case at all.”

He said consumers’ finances in the low- and medium-income ranges are fraying at the edges, while high-income earners continue to win the day due to the soaring

stock market . Negative data points span the gamut from vehicle repossessions, which rose to their highest level since the great recession, to a drop in consumer loans to a declining share of those who feel they are in better economic shape than last year.

“It really says something, considering this ripping bull market in equities, that we would be seeing in the New York Fed consumer survey that only 22 per cent of American households report that they are in better financial shape today compared to a year ago; while 33 per cent state they are in worse shape,” Rosenberg said.

One in five Americans younger than 40 didn’t think they would be able to pay their debts over the next three months, matching levels during the height of the pandemic, according to the latest Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey of consumer expectations.

Consumer loans as of Oct. 1 were down 4.5 per cent from a year ago, falling to levels last recorded in 2021.

Rosenberg also said there are signs of slipping economic conditions in the U.S.

Federal Reserve ‘s latest Beige Book, which compiles real-time, on-the-ground information on business and consumer conditions.

“Six weeks ago, no region was reporting a ‘softening’ in economic activity,” he said, but now four of the Fed’s 12 reserve bank districts are.

The Beige Book had lots to say about the U.S. labour market , including that demand for workers was “muted” across the Fed’s districts and sectors. Employers said they were cutting the number of workers through either attrition or layoffs, blaming “weaker demand, elevated economic uncertainty” and, in some cases, artificial intelligence.

“A message here for those who believe the sudden weakening in the labour market has been principally a supply-side affair (due to cuts to immigration),” Rosenberg said. “The Beige Book would beg to differ.”

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The number of homes sold nationally dropped by 1.7 per cent in September compared to August, the first month-over-month decline since March, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)’s monthly data released on Oct. 16.

CREA said the monthly decline was the result of lower sales activity in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Montreal, which more than offset gains in the Greater Toronto Area and Winnipeg.

  • Today’s data: Statistics Canada releases international securities transactions for August.
  • Today’s earnings: A&W Food Services of Canada Inc., American Express Co., Ally Financial Inc.
  • Crackdown on temporary foreign worker program has cut illegal sale of jobs, says federal minister
  • BMO to sell 138 U.S. branches to First-Citizens Bank, then open 150 more, mainly in California
  • Canada must prepare for the worst in CUSMA trade talks, warns former NAFTA negotiator

Find out more here. More than a decade after the introduction of tax-free savings accounts (

TFSAs ), here’s a great way to take advantage of them using a little intergenerational planning. TFSAs allow for contribution room just for being an adult Canadian citizen. The problem for people in their late teens and 20s is they often don’t have extra cash lying around to take advantage of the program. What if they got a little help from Mom and Dad, or even Grandma and Grandpa? Find out more

here . Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at

wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course).

McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s

Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus, check out his

Financial Post on YouTube

mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily. Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic, with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at

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