For the second time, a shareholder vote on Cenovus Energy Inc. ‘s takeover of MEG Energy Corp. has been postponed, as the oilsands major gears up for what could be a final push to bring the contested deal to a close.

MEG said in a statement Tuesday that about 63 per cent of shareholders were in support of Cenovus’s bid, based on votes that were submitted early by proxy, or were expected to be cast in person at Thursday’s meeting

—  just shy of the two-thirds required for approval. The move came as a surprise to investors and market watchers who had expected Cenovus to handily secure the supermajority of votes required after rival suitor

“But it’s more complicated than maybe Cenovus or the market assumed.”

The delay has cast fresh doubt on the outcome of a drawn-out takeover battle

that has gripped the Canadian oilpatch since last spring when Strathcona launched the hostile bid that put MEG on the auction block.

Cenovus had appeared on the verge of victory heading into this week’s shareholder vote. It was armed with a board-backed offer valuing MEG at about $8.5 billion and increased firepower in the form of newly acquired shares in the target company that it planned to vote in favour of the deal.

But Tuesday’s delay appeared to rattle investors, with analysts at TD Securities and Scotiabank warning the deal could fail again.

“(Cenovus) is still short which is concerning as we do not see potential for further increases to the offer,” Menno Hulshof, managing director of equity research at TD Securities, said in a note Tuesday that downgraded MEG’s stock from “buy” to “sell”.

“(We) still believe the (Cenovus-MEG) transaction will ultimately be approved, but the visibility has fallen considerably over the past few days.”

The latest setback comes on the heels of at least three MEG shareholders filing complaints to the the Alberta Securities Commission over the board’s decision to release Cenovus from typical “standstill” provisions, enabling it to buy more of MEG’s stock.

The complaints allege the move was unfair to shareholders and rival suitor Strathcona, effectively dissuading any further competitive bids for MEG by providing a crucial procedural advantage to Cenovus.

Neither MEG nor Cenovus have addressed the concerns raised in the complaints. The regulator has not commented.

Cenovus’s move to buy a stake in MEG was supposed to boost its chances in the most recent vote

— but it failed, Asheef Lalani, chief investment officer at Toronto-based family office Berczy Park Capital and former portfolio manager for UBS Securities, said.

“They still don’t have the support, even after doing that,” Lalani said.

Lalani, who is one of the three known shareholders to have complained to Alberta’s securities watchdog, and a holder of stock in both MEG and Strathcona, said he had hoped to see the regulator step in to require MEG to restart the vote or the entire sales process.

“Cenovus obviously doesn’t want that, because they see a path to the finish line,” Lalani said.

“But it’s highly uncertain right now. If (Cenovus) are unable to make it over the line by next week, they might have to walk. I don’t know how many extensions they have left to keep trying.”

In the lead-up to the new shareholder meeting on Oct. 30, investors and dealmakers said they expect Cenovus will be pouring over MEG’s shareholder list, looking to see who has voted and who could still be persuaded in a final push to get the deal over the line.

The oilsands major will likely be targeting short-term investors, hedge funds and other traders who bought MEG more recently, betting its shares would rise on the deal with Cenovus.

“The normal approach is a bit of carrot and stick,” Tims said. “The carrot is, ‘this is a full and fair offer, and it’s a better alternative than anything else that’s on the table and that it’s available now.’

“The stick is, ‘if you don’t accept it, and the vote fails, the chances are the share price drops’.”

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